East Carolinian

Issue date: 9/25/08 Section: Opinion

The short and easy answer is no one knows. I find it a sad testament to the history of the nation that we have to have this discussion. At the same time, I celebrate how far we have come that we are in a position to be having it at all. America has seen great cleavages in its history, with few having the lasting and painful legacy of racial prejudice. We live in a country with past, present and likely future racial divisions. So the question worth examining is: could this election see a Bradley effect?

The Bradley effect is a term that describes the phenomenon of an African-American candidate's showing a lead over a white candidate in polling leading up to election day, which then vanishes or decreases in the voting on the actual day of the elections.

This was the case for Tom Bradley in California's 1982 gubernatorial contest. Bradley saw a large lead in the polls days before the election, but that lead transformed into a half-point loss on Election Day.

A similar fate nearly met Douglas Wilder in Virginia's 1989 gubernatorial race, where a nine-point polling lead the day before the election became a win of less than half of one percent on Election Day.

In both cases, research showed a tendency for a small percentage of white voters to give inaccurate responses to poll questions, as well as a disproportionate break of late-deciding independents for the white candidate.

More recent research has shown less of a racial effect than suggested by isolated cases such as Bradley and Wilder's. A study from UC Davis examining actual voting returns in relevant campaigns for the House of Representatives found white voters were not less likely, or only slightly less likely, to vote for a racial minority.

Another examination of the eight Senate races from 2002-2006 in which African-Americans ran against white candidates, found that Democratic African-American candidates faced a small decline in actual votes from pre-election predictions, while Republican African-American candidates actually did better than predicted.

So, the final calculus for this presidential election is simple: we cannot say with any certainty what role, if any, race will play in the outcome. Place no stock in anyone who tells you it categorically will or will not affect who wins and who loses.

There are simply too many confounding factors influencing human behavior; the only way to know the answer is to know the true nature of people's thoughts, even when they attempt to conceal them.

My own sense is, yes, there are people who will vote for Obama because he is African-American, and others who will not vote for him for the same reason. I also believe we live in a fundamentally pragmatic, middle-of-the-road country that prefers to weigh what or who is actually going to do them some good.

Whether that is McCain or Obama, most people have more important things on their minds than the melanin content of a candidate's epidermis.

This writer can be contacted at opinion@theeastcarolinian.com.

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