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Obama to win 4-1
Jon Dougherty
Issue date: 9/9/08 Section: Opinion
In the midst of a presidential election, most media focus on national polls that survey citizens across the country to gain a composite picture of the nation. Using these national polls, we are able to watch trends in favorability and play the "if the election were held today…" game. Most national polls show the two candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat--meaning a 3 to 4 percent difference, depending on the poll in question.
There is just one problem with this method: We don't hold a national election for president. In the U.S., we hold state elections for national office. Because of the Electoral College, each state elects delegates to cast the votes for their fellow statesmen. Instead of a popular vote, all that is required of a candidate are 270 electoral votes, 50 percent plus one, to assume the White House.
It is because of this process that it is very likely that on January 20, 2009, the nation will witness the swearing in of President Obama.
RealClearPolitics.com, a clearing house of political, governmental and global news, compiles the most current polling data from every state in the nation and uses this information to maintain an up-to-date Electoral College map depicting where the race to 270 stands. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (uselectionatlas.org) shows the voting behavior of every state since 1789 as well as current polling trends and predictions.
A truncated explanation due to limited space: States that are out of reach are considered "strong." States with a clear preference but perhaps not overwhelming are labeled "leaning" and awarded to the leading candidate. "Toss-up" states are those whose data show a statistical dead heat and could break either way depending on the fortunes of the campaign.
Obama currently holds 238 electoral votes on RealClearPolitics.com and 259 on Dave Leip's Atlas. The totals for McCain are 174 and 194, respectively. The difference between the sources' estimates represents Leip's willingness to assign a state to a candidate even if the polling data shows a mere 2 percent lead.
There is just one problem with this method: We don't hold a national election for president. In the U.S., we hold state elections for national office. Because of the Electoral College, each state elects delegates to cast the votes for their fellow statesmen. Instead of a popular vote, all that is required of a candidate are 270 electoral votes, 50 percent plus one, to assume the White House.
It is because of this process that it is very likely that on January 20, 2009, the nation will witness the swearing in of President Obama.
RealClearPolitics.com, a clearing house of political, governmental and global news, compiles the most current polling data from every state in the nation and uses this information to maintain an up-to-date Electoral College map depicting where the race to 270 stands. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (uselectionatlas.org) shows the voting behavior of every state since 1789 as well as current polling trends and predictions.
A truncated explanation due to limited space: States that are out of reach are considered "strong." States with a clear preference but perhaps not overwhelming are labeled "leaning" and awarded to the leading candidate. "Toss-up" states are those whose data show a statistical dead heat and could break either way depending on the fortunes of the campaign.
Obama currently holds 238 electoral votes on RealClearPolitics.com and 259 on Dave Leip's Atlas. The totals for McCain are 174 and 194, respectively. The difference between the sources' estimates represents Leip's willingness to assign a state to a candidate even if the polling data shows a mere 2 percent lead.
Viewing Comments 1 - 4 of 8
Sarah
posted 9/10/08 @ 2:01 AM EST
I CALL BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!! I think it is a horrible column to write it scares away voters for both Obama and McCain way to go douche dag!
Sinjun
posted 9/10/08 @ 3:49 AM EST
While it's interesting to point out how the Electoral College works, it's still too soon to call the election. You should know better than this, and this article should have been changed to something along the lines of say an introduction to the Electoral System rather than leaning one way or another. (Continued…)
Sinjun
posted 9/10/08 @ 1:18 PM EST
true i suppose with the projecting and expecting what it might be, it's just been too dynamic a election this year i suppose.
as for interesting an in depth look at the electoral college and how it works i think would be rather interesting and not really require choosing one side or another. (Continued…)
Jon Dougherty
posted 9/10/08 @ 3:38 PM EST
No harm done, I assure you. :) Love to engage in coversation with readers; that is the entire purpose to the editorial wing of a news organization. If it all flowed one way, I certainly would not enjoy it as much. (Continued…)
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